The four past champions at this venue, either under this sponsor or the previous BC Open tag, all had some PGA Tour pedigree. Dustin Johnson was a big-priced outsider in 2008 and the only first-time winner, but has since risen further than any of the other three; Matt Kuchar, Steve Flesch and John Rollins. Johnson’s victory was also the only year when scoring was modest, with a winning total of nine-under-par. Otherwise, 17 under has been the minimum, and with the weather largely set fair, I suspect it will be even lower this time.
Course and stats
Atunyote GC is a 7,482 yard par 72, designed by Tom Fazio. The fairways are wide and rough relatively light. Big-hitters tend to enjoy an advantage, though the ultimate key is a hot putter and birdie accumulation. In other words, more of the same after two consecutive birdie-fests, albeit switching from a pair of par 70s to this longer layout, which will place a slightly greater emphasis on par-five performance.
The key stats to follow in my view are driving distance, putting average and birdie average.
Betting selections
2pts ew RORY SABBATINI @ 25/1 (GENERAL, 30/1 STAN JAMES)
It should come as something of a blow to Rory’s ego that he’s here rather than Firestone, where he would have rated at least an interesting outsider. Such is the price of chronic inconsistency and a dubious attitude. Nevertheless, there was a strong sign of improvement when finishing eighth in a much stronger field at Loch Lomond on his penultimate start, which along with last year’s 12th, adds up to a solid claim.